The landscape of the American labor market is on the cusp of a significant transformation, challenging widely held assumptions about artificial intelligence and its impact on employment. Contrary to widespread concerns about job displacement, a new report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) titled "Employment Projections: 2025-2035" indicates a future characterized by labor shortages, even as advancements in AI productivity accelerate. This projection, released in September 2026, paints a complex picture of an economy grappling with demographic shifts, evolving skill demands, and the strategic integration of advanced technologies.
The core of the BLS findings suggests a considerable divergence between economic growth and workforce expansion. Over the next decade, the U.S. labor market is projected to grow by a modest 3.5%. This is a stark contrast to the anticipated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, which is expected to reach 22% during the same period. This disparity implies a projected annual growth in labor productivity of nearly 2%, compelling businesses across all sectors to accelerate their adoption and integration of AI technologies. This imperative to enhance efficiency and output through AI will necessitate a fundamental rethinking of organizational structures and human capital management, leading to what some experts are calling the rise of the "Dynamic Organization." For professionals within Human Resources, this evolving environment paradoxically signifies a booming job market, as evidenced by ongoing analysis indicating robust demand for HR expertise despite significant AI investments.
Key Findings from the BLS 2035 Projections: A Shifting Workforce
The BLS report unveils several critical trends that will shape the U.S. job market through 2035.
1. Slowing Workforce Growth: A Demographic Shift
A primary driver of the anticipated labor shortages is the significantly slower growth rate of the U.S. workforce. Compared to the 10.9% growth observed in the previous decade, the workforce is now expected to expand by only 3.5% over the next ten years. This deceleration means that even with the automation of certain tasks by AI, many industries will likely face persistent shortages of qualified workers.
Analysis of the current job market reveals that approximately 61% of U.S. jobs, by population, require a significant degree of physical or human-centered interaction. Healthcare stands out as the largest segment within this category. While AI possesses the potential to fully automate around 13% of existing jobs, the report suggests that, barring the widespread deployment of advanced physical robotics, AI’s primary impact will not be job elimination but rather the augmentation of human capabilities, creating what are termed "Superworker" opportunities.
Compounding this demographic slowdown are the prevailing anti-immigration policies. Recent analyses, including reports from The Economist, highlight the economic consequences of these policies, suggesting they will further exacerbate existing workforce shortages. The confluence of anti-immigration measures, historically low birth rates, and an aging population are the principal factors contributing to this projected deceleration in labor supply.
2. An Aging Workforce: The Rise of the "Senior Superworker"
The U.S. workforce is undergoing a significant aging trend, with individuals aged 65 and over constituting one of the fastest-growing demographic segments. Currently, this age group represents 7% of the total workforce. By 2035, this figure is projected to rise to 8.5%, marking a substantial 21% growth rate for this cohort – seven times the overall workforce growth rate.
Studies by organizations such as AARP indicate a notable trend of older Americans "unretiring," with nearly 10% of workers over 65 choosing to re-enter the labor force. This phenomenon suggests that careers will likely be extended, and companies will need to adapt to a multi-generational workforce. This presents a critical challenge and opportunity for HR leaders, emphasizing the need for robust generational diversity programs. Research consistently points to age-based discrimination in hiring and compensation, with nearly a quarter of workers over 50 believing they have been "left behind" by employers. Addressing these biases and fostering inclusive environments for older workers will be crucial for businesses seeking to tap into this valuable talent pool.
3. Healthcare and Home Health: Dominating Labor Market Growth
The healthcare sector is poised to be a primary engine of job growth in the coming decade. Demand for home health and personal care aides is expected to surge, with this category alone projected to employ 5.5 million individuals, representing an 18% increase. Registered nurses, a cornerstone of the healthcare system, will also see significant demand, and this profession is anticipated to experience the highest percentage wage growth across all industry segments.
Furthermore, the role of nurse practitioners is projected to expand dramatically, with job numbers set to grow by 41%. The average wage for nurse practitioners is forecast to rise from $132,000 to $181,000, reflecting the increasing demand and specialized skills required. Overall, the healthcare industry is expected to account for 37% of all job growth, with its share of total U.S. employment expanding from 13.3% to 14%.
4. AI’s Role in Automating Administrative Tasks
The BLS report categorizes job titles into four groups based on their susceptibility to AI: Human-Touch, Human-Centric, AI-Enabled, and AI-Automated. The analysis reveals that job titles experiencing the most rapid decline are predominantly administrative roles. This includes positions such as cashiers, clerks, bookkeepers, secretaries, receiving clerks, retail managers, tellers, and other administrative support staff, which collectively represent approximately 13% of today’s jobs. The BLS anticipates this trend will accelerate, with similar impacts expected for "human-touch" jobs as robotic capabilities advance.
Interestingly, certain IT roles are now being categorized as "administrative" and are also showing declining numbers and wages. These include computer support specialists, programmers (distinct from software developers), testers, and data entry personnel. This suggests that AI’s influence extends beyond traditional clerical work into technical support functions.
In contrast, jobs characterized by high-touch and human-centric elements are experiencing increasing demand. These roles, comprising 61% of the workforce, encompass skilled trades like laborers, electricians, and plumbers, as well as professions in home health, counseling, and psychology. Emerging fields in energy and power production, aerospace, health science, and bio-engineering are also projected to be significant sources of new employment opportunities.
5. Stability in Management, Sales, and Teaching Roles
Contrary to some predictions that AI would lead to significant reductions in middle management, the BLS forecasts continued growth in management positions. The report posits that the rise of "Superworkers" will necessitate more sophisticated and skilled management, often referred to as "Supermanagers."
While retail sales positions are expected to see a modest decline of 3-5%, high-value sales roles are projected to grow. Teaching positions, despite the slowing birth rate, are anticipated to remain stable. This stability is attributed to the persistent and growing need for new skills development and innovative learning methodologies across all sectors of the economy.
6. Wage Premiums Shift to "Superworker" Job Families
The analysis of wage trends indicates a significant upward movement for jobs that are "AI-enabled." These roles are not only surviving but are increasing in value and compensation. For instance, a software engineer augmented by AI transcends the traditional role of a programmer to become a product leader and problem solver. Similarly, an HR business partner leveraging AI for data analysis and policy research evolves into a strategic consultant and advisor. These "Superworker" job families are currently experiencing wage growth at twice the rate of inflation.
The "Superworker" Effect: Augmentation Over Automation
The overarching narrative emerging from the BLS projections and accompanying analysis, particularly detailed in the book "Superpowered," is the "Superworker" effect. This concept posits that AI and automation are not primarily eliminating jobs but rather "superpowering" them. By automating routine tasks, the definition of "routine" itself is evolving. Roles such as cashiers, clerks, customer service representatives, administrative assistants, and bookkeepers are vanishing in their traditional forms.
However, individuals in these roles are not necessarily facing unemployment. Instead, they are expected to transition into reinvented work that focuses on the core, higher-value aspects of their professions, rather than the time-consuming tasks that previously defined their roles.
The BLS data has been analyzed to categorize 830 job titles into four distinct groups:
- Human Touch: Roles that inherently require direct human physical interaction or hands-on work.
- Human-Centric: Positions demanding empathy, active listening, teaching, or supportive interpersonal skills.
- AI-Enhanceable: Jobs where AI can significantly augment an individual’s capabilities and efficiency.
- AI-Replaceable: Roles where the majority of tasks can be automated by AI.
Current analysis indicates that 61% of jobs fall into the Human Touch or Human-Centric categories, 26% are heavily AI-ready, and 13% are considered AI-Replaceable. Even within the Human Touch and Human-Centric categories, AI is expected to play a supportive role, aiding in areas such as scheduling, training, and decision-making, thereby transforming these roles into Superworker positions.
Historically, job destruction rates have been relatively low. In the past year, for example, job destruction accounted for only about one-third of a percent of the total workforce. This suggests that while automation is a powerful force, its impact on total job loss unfolds gradually. Over time, the influence of robotics is expected to expand to more "human touch" jobs, and AI will increasingly impact "human-centric" roles.
Looking Ahead to 2035: Navigating a Dynamic Labor Market
The implications of the BLS projections are profound and far-reaching. Contrary to earlier predictions of widespread job losses due to AI, the next decade is likely to be defined by significant worker shortages in the United States. Human-touch and human-centric jobs will gain prominence and be enhanced by AI, while knowledge and information-intensive roles are expected to experience continued growth.
Industries such as healthcare, manufacturing, logistics, retail, entertainment, hospitality, and transportation will need to prioritize hiring, training, and employee enablement initiatives. Routine jobs will continue to decline, replaced by roles that demand greater cognitive and emotional intelligence. The overall economic growth of the U.S. may face headwinds as these labor shortages persist.
In this evolving environment, CEOs and CHROs bear the critical responsibility of driving the productivity agenda through strategic AI implementation. The coming decade will underscore the paramount importance of managing people for growth, skill development, retention, and engagement. The successful navigation of this transition will require a proactive and adaptive approach to human capital management, fostering organizations that are not only technologically advanced but also deeply attuned to the evolving needs and capabilities of their human workforce.
Companies and individuals are encouraged to consult the detailed BLS research and leverage resources like Galileo, which provides AI-driven insights into occupational forecasts, to better understand their specific situations and plan for the future. The era of the Superworker is here, demanding a new paradigm for work and a strategic reorientation of how we value and develop human talent in an increasingly automated world.
