The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Projections for 2025-2035 reveals a surprising trend: far from widespread job displacement due to artificial intelligence (AI), the United States is likely to experience significant labor shortages in the coming decade. This outlook stands in stark contrast to prevailing anxieties surrounding AI’s impact on employment, indicating a fundamental shift in how productivity gains will be achieved and the nature of work itself.
The BLS report projects a modest 3.5% growth in the U.S. labor market over the next ten years, a stark deceleration compared to the 10.9% growth seen in the preceding decade. Simultaneously, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is anticipated to expand by a substantial 22%. This widening gap signifies an expected annual labor productivity growth of nearly 2%, compelling businesses across all sectors to accelerate their adoption of AI and automation technologies. This imperative to enhance productivity, however, is set against a backdrop of a constrained workforce, leading to projected shortages in numerous fields, a transformation in job roles and required skills, and a critical need for organizational adaptability.
Key Findings from the BLS 2035 Projections
The BLS report, a comprehensive analysis of future labor market trends, highlights several critical factors shaping the American workforce. These findings underscore the complexity of the evolving employment landscape, where technological advancements intersect with demographic shifts and policy decisions.
Slower Workforce Growth and Persistent Shortages
The projected 3.5% growth of the U.S. workforce between 2025 and 2035 marks a significant slowdown, nearly one-third less than the growth observed in the prior decade. This demographic shift, driven by a confluence of factors including declining birth rates, an aging population, and restrictive immigration policies, is poised to create widespread labor shortages. Even as AI automates certain tasks, the overall supply of workers will not keep pace with economic expansion.
Analysis of the current job market indicates that approximately 61% of U.S. jobs, by population, involve physical or human-centered work, with healthcare representing the largest segment. While AI has the potential to fully automate around 13% of existing jobs, the report suggests that AI is not primarily a job eliminator but rather a catalyst for creating "superworker" opportunities. This concept, explored in detail in the forthcoming book "Superpowered," posits that AI will augment human capabilities, enabling individuals to perform at higher levels.
The impact of restrictive immigration policies on workforce growth is a significant concern. The Economist has highlighted the economic consequences of such policies, suggesting they will further exacerbate existing workforce shortages. The confluence of anti-immigration measures, a historically low birth rate, and an aging demographic creates a challenging environment for employers seeking to fill positions.
An Aging Workforce and Extended Careers
A notable trend identified by the BLS is the aging of the U.S. workforce. The segment of workers aged 65 and over is experiencing a rapid growth rate. Currently comprising 7% of the workforce, this demographic is projected to constitute 8.5% by 2035, representing a 21% increase – seven times the overall workforce growth rate.
Studies by AARP indicate that a significant portion of older workers are choosing to "unretire," extending their careers. This trend is attributed to a variety of factors, including financial necessity, the desire for continued engagement, and a growing recognition of the value older workers bring to the workplace. For human resources leaders, this demographic shift necessitates a focus on generational diversity programs. Despite the increasing presence of older workers, research consistently shows that age discrimination persists in hiring and compensation practices. A quarter of workers over 50 report feeling "left behind," underscoring the need for proactive measures to ensure equitable treatment and utilization of experienced talent.
Healthcare and Home Health: Dominant Growth Sectors
The healthcare sector is set to be a primary driver of job growth in the coming decade. Home health and personal care aides are projected to comprise 5.5 million workers, with an expected growth rate of 18%. Registered nurses, a critical component of the healthcare system, are also projected to see substantial growth, with this segment experiencing the highest percentage wage growth.
Nurse practitioner positions are anticipated to increase by 41%, with average wages rising from approximately $132,000 to $181,000. In total, the healthcare industry is expected to account for 37% of all job growth, with its share of overall U.S. employment expanding from 13.3% to 14%. This surge in demand for healthcare professionals is a direct response to an aging population and the increasing complexity of medical needs.
AI’s Impact on Administrative Roles and the Rise of "Superworkers"
The BLS analysis categorizes 830 job titles into four groups: human-touch, human-centric, AI-enabled, and AI-automated. The findings indicate that AI is most effectively automating low-wage administrative jobs. Occupations such as cashiers, clerks, bookkeepers, secretaries, and tellers are among those projected to decline most rapidly, representing approximately 13% of jobs. This trend is expected to accelerate as robotic technology matures, potentially impacting "human-touch" roles as well.
Certain IT roles, once considered highly skilled, are now being classified as administrative and are also facing decline. Positions like computer support specialists, programmers (distinct from software developers), testers, and data entry personnel are seeing a decrease in demand and wages.
Conversely, "high-touch" and "human-centric" jobs are experiencing growing demand. These roles, which constitute 61% of the workforce, include laborers, electricians, plumbers, and professionals in fields such as home health, counseling, and psychology. Emerging fields like energy and power production, aerospace, health sciences, and bio-engineering are also anticipated to be significant sources of new employment.
The concept of the "Superworker," as detailed in the book "Superpowered," is central to understanding these shifts. AI and automation are not eliminating jobs but rather "superpowering" them. By automating routine tasks, AI frees up individuals to focus on the core, higher-value aspects of their roles. For instance, a cashier might transition to a customer engagement specialist, or an administrative assistant could evolve into an operational strategist. The definition of "routine" is itself evolving, impacting roles that were once considered stable.
Stable Employment in Management, Sales, and Education
Contrary to some predictions of AI leading to a significant reduction in middle management, the BLS projects stable growth in management positions. The need for effective leadership to guide teams augmented by AI, or "supermanagers," is seen as crucial. Research suggests that these leaders will play a vital role in maximizing the potential of AI-enhanced workforces.
While retail sales jobs are expected to see a modest decline of 3-5%, high-value sales roles are projected to grow. Teaching positions are also anticipated to remain stable, despite declining birth rates. This stability is attributed to the ongoing and escalating need for new skills development and the adoption of innovative learning methodologies.
The Shifting Landscape of Wages and the "Superworker" Premium
The analysis of wage trends reveals a significant premium being placed on "AI-enabled" job families. Professionals whose roles are enhanced by AI are seeing their value and compensation increase. A software engineer leveraging AI tools, for example, moves beyond traditional programming to become a product leader or a complex problem solver. Similarly, an HR business partner utilizing AI for data analysis and policy lookup can dedicate more time to strategic consulting and advisory roles. These "Superworker" roles are experiencing wage growth at twice the rate of inflation, indicating a clear economic incentive for embracing AI-driven augmentation.
The "Superworker" Effect: Redefining Roles and Productivity
The "Superworker" effect is the overarching narrative emerging from the BLS projections. AI and automation are not instruments of mass unemployment but rather powerful tools for enhancing human potential. By automating repetitive and mundane tasks, AI liberates individuals to concentrate on aspects of their jobs that require creativity, critical thinking, empathy, and complex problem-solving.
The categorization of jobs into "Human Touch," "Human-Centric," "AI Enhanceable," and "AI Replaceable" provides a framework for understanding this transformation. Currently, 61% of jobs fall into the "Human Touch" or "Human-Centric" categories, emphasizing the enduring importance of human interaction and care. Another 26% are identified as "AI-ready," meaning they can be significantly enhanced by AI, while 13% are deemed "AI-Replaceable."
Even jobs within the "Human Touch" and "Human-Centric" categories are being transformed by AI. For instance, law enforcement officers, contractors, and social workers can benefit from AI tools for improved scheduling, enhanced training modules, and more efficient support systems. Over time, these roles will increasingly become "Superworker" roles, leveraging AI to amplify their effectiveness.
The BLS data, when analyzed over time, shows that while some job displacement is projected, its impact as a percentage of the total workforce remains relatively small. In the past year, job destruction accounted for only about one-third of a percent of the workforce. This suggests that while automation is a powerful force, its effect on total job loss is a gradual process.
However, the dynamic nature of technological advancement means these categories will evolve. Robots are expected to have a greater impact on "human-touch" jobs, and AI will increasingly influence "human-centric" roles. This ongoing evolution necessitates continuous adaptation and reskilling.
Looking Ahead: Navigating the Future of Work
The BLS Employment Projections for 2025-2035 offer a clear roadmap for the future of the U.S. labor market. Contrary to widespread fears, the next decade is projected to be characterized by worker shortages rather than widespread unemployment. The increasing demand for human-touch and human-centric skills, coupled with the augmentation of knowledge and information-intensive roles through AI, points towards a future where human capabilities are amplified.
Industries such as healthcare, manufacturing, logistics, retail, entertainment, hospitality, and transportation will need to prioritize hiring, training, and employee enablement to address anticipated shortages. Routine jobs will diminish, replaced by roles that demand greater cognitive and emotional intelligence. The overall economic landscape may experience periods of slowed growth or challenges due to these persistent labor shortages.
For CEOs and CHROs, the imperative is clear: drive the productivity agenda through strategic AI implementation. The coming decade will place unprecedented importance on managing people for growth, fostering skill development, ensuring retention, and cultivating employee engagement. The successful navigation of this transformative period will depend on an organization’s ability to build what is termed a "Dynamic Organization"—one that is agile, adaptive, and capable of leveraging both human talent and technological innovation.
The BLS data, accessible through their official website, offers a granular view of occupational forecasts. Resources like Galileo, an AI intelligence platform for HR and management, can provide personalized insights and data-driven guidance for individuals and organizations navigating these complex trends. The overarching message is one of transformation, where the future of work is not about machines replacing humans, but about humans and machines collaborating to achieve unprecedented levels of productivity and innovation.
